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What is EU Membership all About?

19. December 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

This is my last entry in the Eurozone 2013 blog. I want to conclude with some general remarks tackling what sounds like a rather innocent question and is the subject of a paper I am working on: What is EU membership all about? The question was put to me for a talk at a summer school in Britain earlier this year. Needless to say, the British are particularly concerned with what I call the changing notion of EU membership. Is it essentially about the single market, Eurozone membership, or about a community of rules and values? All of them really, one might respond, but things are not that simple anymore.

Ever since the governments of the Eurozone started to repair the dysfunctional economic and monetary union the notion of membership has been blurred. This development is nothing new – we have seen that the essence of EU (formerly EC) membership shifted along with successive treaty reforms, most markedly with the Treaty of Maastricht that significantly widened the scope of joint policies. With the need to further integrate EMU in the course of the crisis we are currently seeing yet another shift of membership – one that might turn out divisive.

What kind of union are we talking about? This question challenges not only the political identity of euro and non-euro members of the EU-28 such as the UK and Poland. It also poses questions for countries eligible to or on their way to membership such as Serbia and the other non-EU Balkan states or Turkey for that matter. While the pre-crisis European Union was by no means the monolithic bloc as which it was often portrayed the notion of membership got even less clear cut in the course of the crisis.

Why does this matter? Has the union not been dealing with different layers (a colleague once branded it the “European Onion”) for quite some time, the euro and Schengen being the most prominent examples? From an outside point of view, the demarcation between Europe as a continent, the European Union of 28 members and the eurozone of 17 – 18 with Latvia joining in 2014 – is not that clear anyway and not so important. For EU Member States, however, the degree to which they participate in the union’s policies clearly matters. It determines the rules that countries have to adopt, their rights and obligations, their access to policies, institutions, decision-making and resources. It matters to the daily reality of citizens in the EU’s Member States – think, for example, of borderless travel granted only to Schengen members. And, one aspect that gained particular relevance in the course of the crisis: the degree of participation in the EU’s policies, in particular EMU, influences the overall clout of Member states in the Union. The power question is back.

Arguably the direction of the Union is defined by the members of the eurozone nowadays. True, most non-Euro members signed up to the new legal arrangements that were adopted since the beginning of the crisis, and countries within the eurozone tried to keep the ‘outs’ close to their bosom. A fragmented Union is risky for all Member States, and realising this has so far been the glue for cohesiveness. But will it hold as the eurozone continues to move ahead next year?

The notion of membership has also been challenged when it comes to the Union’s values. What role do Member States still attribute to the values of their founding treaties? How could Member States invite Greece to join the Eurozone with such obvious deficiencies in its state functions and its market economy? A question that not only the union’s newest member Croatia might ask after having been through a detailed and demanding fitness regime in preparation for accession. Then, how on earth was it possible that the most important countries of the eurozone, Germany and France, both on several occasions violated the Stability and Growth Pact ten years ago without being sanctioned by the European Commission – arguably the early kiss of death for the euro in its current shape? What makes the Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán so confident in pushing his luck with fellow EU countries, turning his back on fundamental rights and freedoms at home?

While the EU has developed a sophisticated set of instruments to encourage good behaviour and to punish when its rules and values are disrespected in its enlargement policy, it struggles to pull similar carrots and sticks with fellow EU members. Overall, the respect of rules and values has been watered down – consequently, member states take a certain freedom in interpreting them these days. This is a most damaging side effect of the crisis that member states will have to deal with in years to come.

The upcoming elections to the European parliament will demonstrate how vulnerable the Union has become with regard to its values. Parties and movements that claim they want a different Union but that in reality don’t want the Union to work will manage to capitalize from this worrying development.

There are two lessons from 2013 that policymakers should bear in mind in 2014: EU membership must not be divisive, and it must bring values to the fore again.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Taking a Close Look at the Grand Coalition Talks: not so Grand on Europe?

5. November 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

Berlin is heading towards a grand coalition between Chancellor Merkel’s CDU, her Bavarian sister party, the CSU, and the Social Democrats (SPD). After an election campaign in which European issues were strangely absent, surely the delegations that sat down a month after the elections had to get their teeth into Europe.

By putting Europe on the agenda of the coalition talks at an early stage of the negotiations, the delegations wanted to send out two messages: firstly, Europe matters and, secondly, Conservatives and Social Democrats are optimistic about shaping a joint agenda, so no need for the rest of Europe to worry about Berlin not getting its act together. Clearly, healing the eurozone is of vital interest for this country and one of the priorities laid out by Chancellor Merkel for the future government. However, what leaked out on the confidential discussions last week was not quite matching these ambitions.

To start with, it is, arguably, rather strange to see European affairs merely been dealt with in a subgroup (“banking regulation, Europe, Euro”) which is part of a larger working group on Finances and the Federal Budget headed by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and Olaf Scholz, First Mayor of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg. A subgroup? Hardly a sign that Europe is prioritised despite the presence of prominent figures such as Martin Schulz and Markus Söder, the Finance Minister of Bavaria. One cannot resist the comparison with the Convention on the Future of Europe convened in 2002, which did not have a working group on “EU institutions” because the issues on the table were so controversial that they had to be dealt with across different working groups. On major issues such as pending decisions on banking union, the SPD’s debt redemption fund, or referendums on EU affairs put forward by the CSU, there was clear and open controversy. Are these really merely tactical moves by the SPD to keep an independent profile from the CDU, especially in the run-up to the European Parliament elections (with Martin Schulz to be nominated as the PES’s candidate for the presidency of the European Commission later this week)?

Not surprisingly, a working document of the discussions that was leaked by the Young European Federalists (JEF) provoked an outcry of Germany’s young pro-Europeans. Apart from a general commitment to the EU this short draft consists of an odd mix of buzzwords for CDU/CSU and SPD: the principle of subsidiarity, a strong role of member states in public services, an EU budget prioritising growth, employment and innovation and the already agreed financial transaction tax. It is unclear what stage of the negotiations it reflected when it was leaked, but the paper ridiculed what are meant to be serious discussions.

Public debate in Germany is currently all about the alleged tapping of Angela Merkel’s phone by US intelligence. At the same time, perhaps to the surprise of those looking at Germany from the outside, the public continues to be largely immune to the most recent wave of criticism from the US Treasury challenging Germany’s external trade surplus and the risk that arguably the German model poses to the healing of the eurozone. I am not suggesting that one has to agree with such allegations, and certainly any German government should respond to such criticism with good arguments.

What is worrying me, however, is that most Germans are still not aware that there is also an intra-European challenge regarding the ‘German model’, which for me is much more important than the Washington angle. At a crucial point for the future of the eurozone, Germans remain rather clueless about what is at stake. How long will it take for political leaders in Germany to prepare the public for the hard choices and for the sacrifices that Germany and other eurozone countries will have to make, to build the future for a prosperous and cohesive economic and monetary union? The German President Joachim Gauck was right to address this state of mind which almost resembles sleepwalking in his speech on German unification day in October:

“Our country is not an island. We should not cherish the illusion that we will be spared from political and economic, environmental and military conflicts if we do not contribute to solving them.”

The president lacks political clout, yet he is an accepted normative lighthouse across the country. But he remains a rather lonesome voice on this issue so far – and I doubt whether Germans listening to his speech actually understood the point that the president tried to make. The German public cannot be blamed for this wide-spread ignorance (or innocence?). Where are the politicians today who have the courage and wisdom to unchain the Europe debate?

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Do the German elections matter?

20. September 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

As journalists from across Europe flock to Germany to report on the federal elections this coming Sunday, the question that is asked by many is “Does their outcome matter for Europe?” There is no simple answer to this. Indeed the visions of the major parties on the future of the eurozone and the union as such to this day remain rather unclear – the candidates just don’t talk about them. I speculated in a blog piece in April that it was really only a question of time until the euro hits the campaign – well, generously put, this was wishful thinking. But really, I simply got it wrong.

For different tactical reasons, both the current coalition government of Chancellor Merkel and the major opposition parties, the Greens, the Social Democratic Party and the Left, remained mostly silent on the euro. And with an overall mood of complacency in the country there was no real need to respond to public demand apart from the odd prediction about a new chapter in the Greek drama. So in one of the most formative moments in the history of the European Union, with Germany playing a major role in shaping the future EMU, Germans are pretty much clueless about what to expect on the euro after September 22.

Well, no need for Germans to be wary , so it seems. Colleagues such as Ulrike Guérot and Julian Rappold have recently dissected the positions of the parties on the future of Europe and plotted out what to expect from different election outcomes. Both concluded that the upcoming elections are likely not to change overall German policy or make Germany speeding up with Eurozone reform even if a different coalition made it into power.

I overall agree with these predictions, which of course raise a lot of questions about the prospects for the currency union in the coming months. But I want to focus on a wider point here that has been raised elsewhere, but so far has been largely overlooked by German political elites. This is a subject to be tackled by the next government: The question that is asked increasingly outside of Germany is “Is Berlin still with us?”

Two narratives started to spread that challenge what used to be a certainty about Germany. These two narratives are unfolding in slightly different communities – the EU crowd on the one hand, and the security community on the other. If these narratives continue to be around, and indeed merge, they might put the next German in a rather uncomfortable spot with long-standing partners.

1. The first is the “Germany plays its national card and is willing to go-it-alone” narrative. It is well known in the meantime and encompasses the observation that Germany in the course of the euro crisis developed a good sense of its national interest and used its clout to impose its preferences for the Eurozone architecture on other members. A less prominent facet to this narrative in the continental European debate, but quite present in Britain and the US, is the prediction that the eurozone with its struggling southerners has made Germany look for alternatives elsewhere, notably the emerging economies. “The Germans are bigger than the eurozone”, to put it in a nutshell.
2. The second is the “free-rider” narrative of Germany surfing happily the waves of economic globalisation, with an exports model that fits into the demand of the day, while consuming global security that others provide for. The abstention in the UN Security Council on Libya still resonates, as does Mali – Berlin celebrating 50 years of Franco-German reconciliation while letting Paris do the dirty job in Africa. And then, Syria – aren’t the Germans out once again? “If only the world was a happier place, but it isn’t, and the Germans are cherry-picking the nice bits”, such is the storyline.

From a Berlin perspective I have to say that none of these narratives are entirely convincing to me, but I can see why this current coalition triggered these perceptions elsewhere. Clearly, even without agreeing one has to acknowledge they exist. And such views are likely to spread further unless a new German government made its positions on its European and international choices clear again, and acted accordingly. I don’t see a great deal of awareness over these issues here in Berlin. But I do believe that there are serious questions out there about Germany being a reliable partner, and these questions need a response from the next federal government in Berlin.

I’ll get back to where I see the next government placing itself with regard to these two narratives once the dust settles next week.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

German Government Embraces Multi-Speed Europe

25. July 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

It almost slipped off my radar in the summer break, which Berlin dived into at the end of June: the German government seems to change course on its stance towards a multi-speed Europe or, as analysts like to put it, differentiated integration.

If this is really the case then here is some revolutionary news that will change the face of the union as we have known it.

So, what happened? In an opinion piece for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, one of Germany’s leading daily newspapers, Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle made the case for a hands-on approach towards different speeds for Europe last week.

It is worth quoting what I consider the essential passage of the piece:

“The dilemma is that in Europe 17 countries share a currency, but there are 28 in the Union. How can we move forward given this tension?

That will only be possible if we start thinking in new ways on integration policy. Reinforcing the eurozone means a clearer commitment by Europe to the principle of different speeds than was previously the case.”

To my knowledge this has so far been the most explicit statement on the need to embrace different speeds in order to engineer the widening gaps between the ‘ins’ and ‘outs’ of the eurozone by a member of the government over the past years. Up till now, the federal government carefully avoided to openly address the de facto decoupling of the eurozone from the wider union. Officials frequently pointed out that, according to the treaties, the euro was the currency of the whole union. With a few exceptions all EU members were ‘pre-ins’ to EMU. Obviously, such an approach reflects the destructive potential that multiple speeds might develop for the union as a whole. In the course of the crisis centrifugal forces have already stretched the cohesion of the union to its limits, and the eurozone is far from being a healthy core naturally taking the lead.

It is noteworthy that in his piece Westerwelle now uses the “17/28”, and not the “25 and a few odd outs” formula usually put forward by the government. Now, the question obviously is what to make of this? Arguably, this is a minister known for initiatives such as the “future of Europe group” that have never quite taken off. The newest declaration adopted in Palma de Mallorca this week went down almost unnoticed. It might well be that the minister’s move, regardless of its timeliness and strategic value, is lost in the silly season. Even more importantly, it depends on whether his message is supported in the federal chancellery. This is where all major strategic decisions have eventually been taken on the Eurozone over the past years. Clearly, the foreign office suffers from being marginalised even further over Germany’s ‘ Europapolitik’. It is possible that the minister and his aides in the foreign office now make an attempt to win back some territory over the strategic questions related to the future of the union. But will this initiative fly?

Politically speaking the contentious issue of multiple speeds is much more relevant for both insiders and outsiders of the eurozone than the initiatives of Guido Westerwelle to trigger an institutional debate on Europe’s future. In terms of substance there might well be allies in Paris on differentiated integration, certainly more so than on the institutional questions over which the German foreign office struggled to bring the French counterparts in. Interestingly, Jacques Delors has been promoting his ideas of rethinking EMU and reconciling it with what he calls “Greater Europe” on various occasions over the past months. Is he intellectually paving the way for the socialist leaders in Paris to find common ground on the future of Europe with Germany again?

It is difficult to tell whether the minister’s piece reflects the wider views in the government, and whether it turns into government policy in the fall. The federal elections could obviously make a difference if they brought a different coalition into office. But if we see more of the same in September, and if Westerwelle’s move is indeed part of the overall thinking in the German government (remember that Wolfgang Schäuble has a soft spot for differentiated integration too), we might see Germany starting to actively engineer a new kind of union under the next government.

“We must always have an eye on the part, but also on the whole” is how the foreign minister concludes his piece. Is Germany about to plot out in greater detail a strategy for a Europe of different speeds that balances the needs of the eurozone with those of the wider union? There will be tough issues to address in the coming months and years. The most important one is clearly whether it will be possible at all to reconcile the future economic and monetary union with the common market as a whole. And what is the glue that will bind the new layers of membership together? In terms of substance, process and alliances there is still a great deal of thinking to be done to make a union within the union work.

German Federal Constitutional Court Chews on Role of European Central Bank

18. June 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

Verdicts from Karlsruhe usually serve as pacifiers for the German public and, more recently, for the eurozone as a whole. Remember the ruling on the ESM and the Fiscal Compact, which the German Federal Constitutional Court concluded was reconcilable with the country’s basic law, or Grundgesetz, in September 2012. What a relief this announcement was for the eurozone’s capitals in their step-by-step struggle for the rescue of the common currency. Germans tend to have a great deal of respect for their constitutional court, and fellow Europeans over the past years learned that every year or so they would have to set eyes onto this city in the southwest of Germany: What does Karlsruhe say?

However, on the euro, things remain far from being put to rest. The overall question that continues to loom is to what extend the more recent rescue measures are covered under the Grundgesetz, or whether they lead to a further Europeanization that the German constitution does not allow for in its current shape. The eurozone continues to be a moving target and at the time of the ESM verdict in the fall of 2012 the judges already knew they would have to chew on another measure of the euro rescue: the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme announced as the court was still dealing with the ESM and the Fiscal Compact. With the programme the ECB said it was ready to buy government bonds of eurozone countries affected by the crisis in order to stabilize their interest levels.

Critics say that this programme violated EU treaties, in particular article 123 of the Treaty of the Functioning of the EU. It is however widely assumed that without this bold move of the ECB the eurozone would not have made it into 2013. What is being questioned though by several groups, among them the NGO “Mehr Demokratie” supported by various organisations and 37.000 German citizens is the legality of the rescue measure. Did the ECB go well beyond its mandate and did it thereby violate the budgetary rights of the German parliament and of German taxpayers? Clearly, these are fair and reasonable questions to ask.

With an impressive line-up including Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble, powerfully eloquent political figures such as Gregor Gysi, the head of DIE LINKE in the Bundestag, and the euro-critic MP Peter Gauweiler, the president of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann and ECB executive board member Jörg Asmussen, the stage was set for drama in Karlsruhe. The media particularly loved what was framed as two gladiators, reportedly friends from university days in Bonn, confronting each other in the courtroom: Jens Weidmann, well-known for its critical stance on the ECB’s bond buying programme, was the only member of the Governing Council that voted against the programme in the fall of 2012. Jörg Asmussen then has been an articulate and public advocate of the ECB’s programme, making the point that while indeed the mission of the central bank was to work for price stability in the eurozone, there was no point in sticking to a narrow interpretation of the mandate when the eurozone was facing a breakup. There are a number of very complex issues that the court will have to look at in the months to come, and many of them are without precedent. But not surprisingly, German gladiators deliberate even the hottest issues in the calmest way – no big surprises in the courtroom last week.

Politically speaking the issues on the table are certainly powerful, and potentially challenging what has perhaps been the most effective intervention in the euro rescue so far. The weird thing is that while the current German government and all that work for a further recovery of the eurozone certainly long for yet another pacifier made by Karlsruhe, the court might have to disappoint when it announces its conclusions in the fall: de facto, Karlsruhe for now is dealing with a non-issue. So far, the ECB only announced the OMT programme without implementing it in detail, a move that proved enough to prevent the breakup of the eurozone. Can a mere announcement form the basis of a court case? The president of the Federal Constitutional Court Andreas Voßkuhle during last week’s hearings made the point that the court’s power was limited. The ECB was an independent European institution, indicating that it was beyond Karlsruhe’s competence to rule over the ECB’s action. Commentators say there is a chance for the case to be conveyed to the European Court of Justice in the end – which perhaps would bring a different dynamic to the outcome.

What has already been a feature of last year’s deliberations on the ESM and the Fiscal Compact was visible again last week: The highest German judges would perhaps like to stay away from the politics of the euro rescue, but because of the nature of the complaints clearly struggle to do so. Ironically, the ECB would (or should) also be more in its comfort zone in a less politicised role.

The real baffling issue around last week’s shoulder rubbing between Karlsruhe and Frankfurt is therefore the weakness (some would even argue the absence) of politics. Without any doubt, the OMT will not solve the problems of the eurozone in the end. For the eurozone’s governments still to make their case! I am not sure the June summit will bring some of the much-needed decisions and will get back to this.

Frau Merkel and the ‘C-Word’

5. June 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

Both the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have just published findings about the performance of the German economy and the state of structural reforms. While there is plenty of discussions in Berlin about what ‘the others’ (in particular France) are not getting right, there is not much of a debate on what ‘the others’ (Commission and IMF) suggest that Germany is or is not getting right. The new findings did not get much attention in the public debate.

Not surprisingly perhaps, as both reports continue what sounds like good news and point out that Germany’s public finances have been overall sound. The IMF underlines that Germany’s “safe haven status and strong balance sheets” has been an “anchor of stability” during the eurozone recovery. When it comes to the recommendations, however, the IMF experts do again not shy away from getting involved with the politics of the euro crisis, welcoming this year’s marginal loosening of the fiscal stance: “(…) fiscal over-performance should be firmly avoided as it could imply a contractionary fiscal stance that is unwarranted in the current low growth environment.”

The Commission is more cautious on the question that has been dominating the eurozone debate for the past months: is Germany that is leading on fiscal consolidation (which makes it look like the teacher’s pet, something Chancellor Merkel was so pleased about in her home country) the real burden to the eurozone? It is hardly surprising that the Commission avoids this hot issue, since the report is a mere recommendation to the Council of Ministers. And, arguably, the Commission diligently follows a rather narrow mandate in assessing German fiscal policy and its 2013 national reform programme. However, against the background of a fierce debate (mostly resonating outside of Germany) on how to trigger jobs and growth in the eurozone the European Commission’s proposals look rather innocent. Frau Merkel, of course, will have been pleased not only with the findings, but also with the fact that the Commission basically restricted itself to inserting the data they collected in the Member States into tables without spending too much time on interpreting them.

The IMF underlines Germany’s crucial role in shaping the future institutional and legal framework of the eurozone. This reads like a hardly veiled criticism on Chancellor Merkel’s so far rather woolly ideas. Just last week, her joint proposal with President Hollande on establishing the function of a permanent president for the eurozone raised eyebrows even within her coalition in Berlin. While I believe it was right to respond to the French initiative launched by President Hollande, as I suggested in my previous blog piece, Merkel should not underestimate the attention she gets for such moves. She might have considered it as a friendly yet half-hearted response to the bruised neighbour, likely to end up watered down or even abandoned the moment its gets on the agenda of the 27 members. But Merkel should know that any move that might shed light on where Germany wants to take the eurozone is taken rather seriously these days and tactical moves are likely to be met with indignation.

Another more telling intervention of Angela Merkel received attention this week. In an interview with DER SPIEGEL the chancellor reiterated what has become in my opinion the word around which she develops her construction plan for Europe: coordination. In her world, the Commission president has a “coordinating function over the policies of the national governments” and therefore should continue to be nominated by the heads of state and government (with a certain role for the European Parliament to play). No more transfer of competencies to the Commission, but improved coordination in policy areas that can strengthen the competitiveness of the eurozone. Read again her Bruges speech of 2010 – it is pretty much in there already.

Needless to say that Merkel’s “c-word” has been a declaration of war to those who carry the “f-word” banner (in the continental, not the British understanding of federalism) advocating for strong and independent EU institutions. A widely overlooked decision: the heads of state used a clause in the Lisbon Treaty and agreed to keep one Commissioner for each Member State at the recent May summit. While this was only a formal adoption of a decision previously being granted to Ireland, Chancellor Merkel was surely pleased. After all, the European party families are gearing up their campaigns for the European Parliament elections in 2014 with joint candidates for the post of the Commission president. What a nightmare for the ‘c-lady’ to imagine a democratically legitimised president of the European Commission representing the majority in the EP, presiding over a reduced college of Commissioners. What would the reports of such a more independent figure have looked like?

After the questionable results of the “open methods of coordination” in the Lisbon Strategy of 2000 – will coordination as a mode of governance get its second wind? Frau Merkel is taking the lead in its revival.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Help the Bruised French out of the Corner!

23. May 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (1)

There has been a lot of bad news last week: the Eurozone is further contracting, France is moving into recession and the EU has been dramatically losing support all across Europe according to figures published in a Pew poll.

Watching President Hollande’s Élysée address one year into his presidency one saw a cornered head of state fighting for his survival at home and against a growing mistrust in Europe towards the French willingness and ability to reform. Not surprisingly, President Hollande, in a desperate attempt to lift the spirits of his fellow Frenchmen, started off his speech with the French leadership in Mali. Not surprisingly, the French president then tried to gain ground vis-à-vis the dominant German neighbour by coming up with a ‘European initiative’: a real economic government, a strategy for investment, a European Energy Community and a eurozone budget. While there might be doubts about the depth and the impact of his proposals one has to acknowledge that the French president did come out of the corner.

In Berlin, however, one hears a lot of derisive commentary about France these days and there are indeed clearly different views about the future architecture of the eurozone. But I saw a man who believed in what he said, who warned that the recession caused by austerity was threatening the very identity of Europe. A President who insisted that his country had made its choice for Europe right from the start, who in the course of the crisis has been trying to “shake things up in Europe” and who is increasingly frustrated about the lack of response from Berlin. A frustration that is likely to expand also to his social democratic friends in the SPD, despite Hollande’s presence during the celebrations of the SPD’s 150th birthday this week. Hollande is watching his country being put into the camp of the ‘poor southerners’ and being publicly accused by the President of the European Commission of not understanding the opportunities of globalisation. What a humiliation for a proud nation to being graciously awarded an extra two years to cut down its deficit – in terms of communication I found this a disaster.
We have got to the point where a public blame game is going on that undermines and disempowers even the most potent leaders in Europe – how does this create the urgently needed trust among citizens that their politicians will eventually manage to find a way out of the crisis?

In all this – and it feels almost absurd living and working here – Berlin still feels like an island of peace. Recession? Didn’t the most recent numbers suggest that the German economy continued to grow, albeit mildly? And doesn’t the minor growth rate support the chancellor’s argument made continuously during the crisis that Germany cannot lift the rest of the eurozone on its own? A lack of citizens’ support? Doesn’t Germany score best in the Pew poll, with 60 per cent of Germans still in favour of the EU despite taxpayers’ money being used for the bailouts?

I wonder if Angela Merkel sometimes wakes up in the morning and asks herself whether she is Alice in Wonderland. Like Alice’s fantasy world, Merkel’s Berlin is full of absurdities these days. As the crisis is threatening to tear the union apart, Frau Merkel enjoys a never ending round dance around herself and an abundance of what I would like to call ‘conversations of comfort’. Not that it is her who actively triggers them – they just seem to happen. Just last month she conversed with the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the proud representation of Deutsche Bank in Berlin. Just having published a biography on Merkel’s foreign policy Stefan Kornelius, the foreign editor of Süddeutsche Zeitung, led the conversation: no drama, no real challenge, just pleasure and comfort and agreement, and the Polish Prime Minister doing the job for Merkel by raving about pretty much anything Merkel and German. The venue was packed on this occasion and politics, business and the media gathering all seemed to be a bit in love with the lady that holds court in the most non-courting way: she just sat there and enjoyed it as seemingly everybody else. A few days later, it felt like the whole of Europe was hanging on her every word when Frau Merkel conversed with the editors of a women’s magazine in a trendy Berlin theatre, chatting about cooking and what she likes in men.

When are the media starting to do their job properly? I really hope for German and French national televisions to gang up and convince Merkel and Hollande to battle it out openly in a TV duel. One of Merkel’s ways of dealing with potentially uncomfortable adversaries is by simply ignoring them – a strategy that seems to work and make her look even stronger. With a few exceptions, she hasn’t even given her social democratic challenger Peer Steinbrück the dignity of a direct address yet. The worst thing that can happen to Hollande in his attempt to contribute to the future architecture of the eurozone now is to be ignored by the German Chancellor. Berlin should know its responsibilities.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

On Axes and Party Politics: the End of Europe’s Predictability

30. April 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

In a commentary last year on the eve of the celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the Élysée Treaty I wondered to what extent the notion of ‘the Franco-German axis’ was still a useful framework to analyse politics in Europe. I argued that in the course of the euro crisis, economic and monetary policies in Europe have become an issue of political majorities along party families rather than of axes such as the Franco-German. Much was at stake in rescuing the euro, I argued, and political leaders travelling to European summits were forced to be increasingly responsive to their electorates—which I believed was good news for democracy. Forget about the Franco-German axis and embrace party politics as a sign of political maturity of the European Union.

I have been challenging myself on this point over the past months on various occasions and, what can I say, I am not at all convinced. As much as those small pockets of europeanised party strategists would like to see it, there is no real alignment of the European left yet, determined to jointly win back majorities to shape a ‘social Europe’ as the new eurozone is in the making. Neither is there a solid conservative bulwark led by the German chancellor to europeanise the notorious Swabian housewife. Rather, the strategies that governments embrace these days in navigating the crisis reflect a much wider repertoire. And while it seems that the old and rather predictable game of summits, axes and treaty reforms is over, the rules of the new game are yet to be written.

In the German context, Peer Steinbrück, the social democratic candidate for the 2013 general elections, is far from leading Europe’s socialists in the reconstruction of the eurozone. Indeed for tactical reasons he chose not to even try and challenge Angela Merkel in what has become her domaine réservé. Or might he be pulling the strings behind Hollande, and the French Left is doing the messy job for him now? (Trying to undermine Merkel from the outside is likely to have the opposite effect, but quite frankly I don’t believe in the existence of such witty tactics anyway). Martin Schulz, recently branded “an extension of Adenauer by social democratic means” with a whiff of respect by, of all papers, the conservative daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung is in his ambition to become the joint candidate of Europe’s social democrats for the next president of the European Commission, doing a much better job. However, Schulz has just disappointed those looking for order on the Paris angle by seconding Angela Merkel when she was personally accused by leading French socialists of dominating and ultimately destroying Europe.

I still stick to the observation that in the course of the crisis, European Union affairs have been politicised to an unprecedented degree. Party politics matter. But for those (including myself) who predicted that the rather predictable old order (‘the Franco-German axis’ ‘the net contributors versus the recipients’, ‘the Weimar Triangle’ etc.) would make way to a similarly predictable order formed along political colours and ideologies have been proven wrong.

The truth is: things have become utterly mazy and therefore rather unpredictable. Now it is for Europe’s great minds to make sense of the new rules of the European power game, of political colours and ideologies, of institutional quarrels (prominently featuring the Commission president these days), of reflexes of national pride, of the new power of domestic constraints, of old balance-of-power thinking, of the shadow of history returning, and of a longing for rationality that is expressed in Europe’s elites turning to scholarly knowledge (and, not surprisingly, failing to find answers). Welcome to the politics of unpredictability.

One thing is for sure: Those who hold the key to understanding the new game will be shaping and, ultimately, winning it.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Getting Cyprus Wrong – and Germany Too?

27. March 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (1)

The agreement on Cyprus concluded this week will turn out as a burden to policy-makers in Europe for both next steps related to Cyprus and the Eurozone rescue as a whole. The best take I have read so far is by Bruegel’s Nicolas Véron, who in his latest commentary addresses the manifold arenas in which the case of Cyprus will play out in the months to come.

Véron also discusses the role of Germany, making the point that the Cyprus agreement was held hostage by Germany’s federal electoral campaign, and Berlin as the “unquestioned central actor” in the Eurozone contributed to undermining trust won back in 2012. I agree that domestic politics played a major role for the governing coalition of Chancellor Merkel. The last thing Merkel wants is a euro controversy tainting the so far bright prospects of her re-election, and headlines in German local newspapers this week did her a favour by stating “Citizens’ deposits safe in German banks”.

The question is, despite the opposition trying to capitalise on the government’s potentially damaging slip and on the anti-Merkel mood in Cyprus and other parts of Europe: with a different government in power in Berlin, would the stance on Cyprus have looked significantly different? I doubt it.

German sociologist Ulrich Beck provided what I consider the key to understand German thinking in an interview published by the London School of Economics’ EUROPP blog this week. It is a crucial hint to understand the German soul throughout the past, present and future of the crisis, which is why I quote it in full length:

“(…) Germany’s austerity policies are not based simply on pragmatism, but also underlying values. The German objection to countries spending more money than they have is a moral issue which, from a sociological point of view, ties in with the ‘Protestant Ethic’. It’s a perspective which has Martin Luther and Max Weber in the background. But this is not seen as a moral issue in Germany, instead it’s viewed as economic rationality. They don’t see it as a German way of resolving the crisis; they see it as if they are the teachers instructing southern European countries on how to manage their economies.”

From the crumbling of the City of London during the first wave of the crises through the debt and governance failure in Greece to what is now being described as a ‘fatal business model’ in Cyprus in German papers, there has always been a moral, even moralistic undertone in the German debate, which people outside Germany are struggling with. For Germans themselves, however, it makes a lot of sense. There is a sense of unfairness felt in Germany when witnessing a growing anti-Germany mood in the streets of Cyprus, Italy, Greece and elsewhere: after all we are the good Europeans, not the bad ones, in helping others to find their way back to what we believe is a ‘good’ way of running an economy, and a government responsive to citizens’ needs. And we are even helping with our taxpayers’ money.

In government circles in Berlin this is framed positively and, with what I believe is a genuine sense of responsibility, as help in ‘forging a new social contract’ in countries affected by the crisis. In other parts of Europe, however, Germans cause increasing outrage for allegedly not tolerating any other system than their own, and for playing a moralistic blame game against “hubris, greediness and wilful negligence” (this is how a leading German conservative daily put it today, suggesting to turn the headquarters of the soon to be closed Laiki Bank into a “museum of greed”).

I understand that it is getting harder to believe in the rest of Europe when reading such commentary (and the list of similar quotes has become long in the course of the crisis) that Berlin has good intentions, and that it genuinely does not want to dominate or destroy other countries’ economic and social models. Keeping in mind the hugely formative driving force to German thinking as described by Ulrich Beck might deliver a key to understanding Germany better.

But Germans have to do their part too. In my observation there is still a lack of real understanding of how and why Germany is perceived by others as lacking empathy among policy makers in Berlin. And those who indeed are aware of these perceptions are playing an increasingly dangerous game by ignoring them or playing them down as a natural sight effect that comes with strong leadership.

If I was to revisit the findings of a set of papers that we published in mid-2012 on how Germany is viewed by other EU Member States, by now the results will certainly give much more reason for concern regarding Germany’s role in Europe. Perceptions matter in European politics, and they might turn against German leadership and narrow Berlin’s room for manoeuvre – to the detriment of Germany and Europe.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Is there an Alternative for Europe in Germany?

15. March 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (1)

In my last blog I made the point that despite Germany being a major player in the reform of the eurozone and despite federal elections taking place in the fall of 2013, Germans at the moment seem rather indifferent about the eurozone’s future direction.

I found this to be rather baffling, since the decisions taken by eurozone leaders these days are not mere technical or legal adjustments, but will determine the substance of policies in the currency union and have already done so.

But is it really true that Europe is absent in the minds of German citizens? Perhaps it is a question of weeks now.

The election campaigns haven’t got into full swing yet, as the political parties are still in the process of putting together and adopting their platforms. And it was only this week that a new party with a distinctly anti-euro profile has entered the stage (to which I will come back).

Over these past two weeks, both the leaders of the Green Party (BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN) and the Social Democrats (SPD) have presented their draft platforms to the public. The Greens will put the draft to their party congress in Berlin in late April. In June, every party member gets the chance to cast a vote on the top ten priorities for the Green campaign. As to the Social Democrats, their party congress will convene in mid-April in the southern German city of Augsburg to adopt the 2013 platform. Those seeking for “Europe controversy” in the country notorious for its “Europe consensus” are likely to eventually find some food for commentary at these gatherings.

Leafing through the 100-pages platform of the SPD and searching for “Europe”, there was a particular thing that struck me. EU matters have usually been framed as a grand thought and duty for Germany, more of a political ritual found in intros or conclusions, or in the obligatory chapter at the end in pamphlets of this kind (sometimes together with foreign policy). For voters that made the effort to read through those pamphlets, things must have quite naturally looked as something of a separate matter (“We will work for a better Germany for you, and then there is also the EU which we, good Germans as we are, want to build.”).

Today, European affairs have become much more a matter of policy substance – and with issues such as budget and banking supervision or the tax on financial transactions, quite naturally, intertwined with the domestic context. The new message, accelerated by the past years of crisis, is “We will work for a better Germany for you, and our playing field to achieve this is also Europe”. In other words, we can only preserve our freedom, prosperity and social justice in this world when taking much more responsibility for each other. My guess is that this is a line that still won’t go down naturally with traditional SPD voters.

Needless to say that for the Greens, advocating Europe in such a way is an easier argument to make. The party’s environmental agenda, one of its main pillars since entering the formal political arena in Germany thirty years ago, is by its very nature a field in which the borders of nation-states do not matter all that much.
It is too early to tell though whether the parties challenging Angela Merkel’s return to the chancellery manage to frame their agendas to really make a difference – and to portray European affairs no longer as a matter of statecraft at EU summits, but of political choices, of political drama and of majorities.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Blog Authors

Adriaan SchoutAdriaan Schout

Dr Adriaan Schout is Deputy Director Research/Europe at Clingendael, Netherlands Institute of International relations. (read more...)

Alexandre AbreuAlexandre Abreu

Dr Alexandre Abreu is a 33-year-old Portuguese economist with a PhD from the University of London. Currently he is a lecturer in Development Economics at the Institute of Economics and Business Administration, Technical University of Lisbon, and a Researcher at the Centre for African and Development Studies of the same University.

Almut MöllerAlmut Möller

Almut Möller is a political analyst in European integration and European foreign policy. She is currently the head of the Alfred von Oppenheim Centre for European Policy Studies at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin. (read more...)

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