SPD « Euro

Artikel getagged mit ‘SPD’

Do the German elections matter?

20. September 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (0)

As journalists from across Europe flock to Germany to report on the federal elections this coming Sunday, the question that is asked by many is “Does their outcome matter for Europe?” There is no simple answer to this. Indeed the visions of the major parties on the future of the eurozone and the union as such to this day remain rather unclear – the candidates just don’t talk about them. I speculated in a blog piece in April that it was really only a question of time until the euro hits the campaign – well, generously put, this was wishful thinking. But really, I simply got it wrong.

For different tactical reasons, both the current coalition government of Chancellor Merkel and the major opposition parties, the Greens, the Social Democratic Party and the Left, remained mostly silent on the euro. And with an overall mood of complacency in the country there was no real need to respond to public demand apart from the odd prediction about a new chapter in the Greek drama. So in one of the most formative moments in the history of the European Union, with Germany playing a major role in shaping the future EMU, Germans are pretty much clueless about what to expect on the euro after September 22.

Well, no need for Germans to be wary , so it seems. Colleagues such as Ulrike Guérot and Julian Rappold have recently dissected the positions of the parties on the future of Europe and plotted out what to expect from different election outcomes. Both concluded that the upcoming elections are likely not to change overall German policy or make Germany speeding up with Eurozone reform even if a different coalition made it into power.

I overall agree with these predictions, which of course raise a lot of questions about the prospects for the currency union in the coming months. But I want to focus on a wider point here that has been raised elsewhere, but so far has been largely overlooked by German political elites. This is a subject to be tackled by the next government: The question that is asked increasingly outside of Germany is “Is Berlin still with us?”

Two narratives started to spread that challenge what used to be a certainty about Germany. These two narratives are unfolding in slightly different communities – the EU crowd on the one hand, and the security community on the other. If these narratives continue to be around, and indeed merge, they might put the next German in a rather uncomfortable spot with long-standing partners.

1. The first is the “Germany plays its national card and is willing to go-it-alone” narrative. It is well known in the meantime and encompasses the observation that Germany in the course of the euro crisis developed a good sense of its national interest and used its clout to impose its preferences for the Eurozone architecture on other members. A less prominent facet to this narrative in the continental European debate, but quite present in Britain and the US, is the prediction that the eurozone with its struggling southerners has made Germany look for alternatives elsewhere, notably the emerging economies. “The Germans are bigger than the eurozone”, to put it in a nutshell.
2. The second is the “free-rider” narrative of Germany surfing happily the waves of economic globalisation, with an exports model that fits into the demand of the day, while consuming global security that others provide for. The abstention in the UN Security Council on Libya still resonates, as does Mali – Berlin celebrating 50 years of Franco-German reconciliation while letting Paris do the dirty job in Africa. And then, Syria – aren’t the Germans out once again? “If only the world was a happier place, but it isn’t, and the Germans are cherry-picking the nice bits”, such is the storyline.

From a Berlin perspective I have to say that none of these narratives are entirely convincing to me, but I can see why this current coalition triggered these perceptions elsewhere. Clearly, even without agreeing one has to acknowledge they exist. And such views are likely to spread further unless a new German government made its positions on its European and international choices clear again, and acted accordingly. I don’t see a great deal of awareness over these issues here in Berlin. But I do believe that there are serious questions out there about Germany being a reliable partner, and these questions need a response from the next federal government in Berlin.

I’ll get back to where I see the next government placing itself with regard to these two narratives once the dust settles next week.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Help the Bruised French out of the Corner!

23. May 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (1)

There has been a lot of bad news last week: the Eurozone is further contracting, France is moving into recession and the EU has been dramatically losing support all across Europe according to figures published in a Pew poll.

Watching President Hollande’s Élysée address one year into his presidency one saw a cornered head of state fighting for his survival at home and against a growing mistrust in Europe towards the French willingness and ability to reform. Not surprisingly, President Hollande, in a desperate attempt to lift the spirits of his fellow Frenchmen, started off his speech with the French leadership in Mali. Not surprisingly, the French president then tried to gain ground vis-à-vis the dominant German neighbour by coming up with a ‘European initiative’: a real economic government, a strategy for investment, a European Energy Community and a eurozone budget. While there might be doubts about the depth and the impact of his proposals one has to acknowledge that the French president did come out of the corner.

In Berlin, however, one hears a lot of derisive commentary about France these days and there are indeed clearly different views about the future architecture of the eurozone. But I saw a man who believed in what he said, who warned that the recession caused by austerity was threatening the very identity of Europe. A President who insisted that his country had made its choice for Europe right from the start, who in the course of the crisis has been trying to “shake things up in Europe” and who is increasingly frustrated about the lack of response from Berlin. A frustration that is likely to expand also to his social democratic friends in the SPD, despite Hollande’s presence during the celebrations of the SPD’s 150th birthday this week. Hollande is watching his country being put into the camp of the ‘poor southerners’ and being publicly accused by the President of the European Commission of not understanding the opportunities of globalisation. What a humiliation for a proud nation to being graciously awarded an extra two years to cut down its deficit – in terms of communication I found this a disaster.
We have got to the point where a public blame game is going on that undermines and disempowers even the most potent leaders in Europe – how does this create the urgently needed trust among citizens that their politicians will eventually manage to find a way out of the crisis?

In all this – and it feels almost absurd living and working here – Berlin still feels like an island of peace. Recession? Didn’t the most recent numbers suggest that the German economy continued to grow, albeit mildly? And doesn’t the minor growth rate support the chancellor’s argument made continuously during the crisis that Germany cannot lift the rest of the eurozone on its own? A lack of citizens’ support? Doesn’t Germany score best in the Pew poll, with 60 per cent of Germans still in favour of the EU despite taxpayers’ money being used for the bailouts?

I wonder if Angela Merkel sometimes wakes up in the morning and asks herself whether she is Alice in Wonderland. Like Alice’s fantasy world, Merkel’s Berlin is full of absurdities these days. As the crisis is threatening to tear the union apart, Frau Merkel enjoys a never ending round dance around herself and an abundance of what I would like to call ‘conversations of comfort’. Not that it is her who actively triggers them – they just seem to happen. Just last month she conversed with the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the proud representation of Deutsche Bank in Berlin. Just having published a biography on Merkel’s foreign policy Stefan Kornelius, the foreign editor of Süddeutsche Zeitung, led the conversation: no drama, no real challenge, just pleasure and comfort and agreement, and the Polish Prime Minister doing the job for Merkel by raving about pretty much anything Merkel and German. The venue was packed on this occasion and politics, business and the media gathering all seemed to be a bit in love with the lady that holds court in the most non-courting way: she just sat there and enjoyed it as seemingly everybody else. A few days later, it felt like the whole of Europe was hanging on her every word when Frau Merkel conversed with the editors of a women’s magazine in a trendy Berlin theatre, chatting about cooking and what she likes in men.

When are the media starting to do their job properly? I really hope for German and French national televisions to gang up and convince Merkel and Hollande to battle it out openly in a TV duel. One of Merkel’s ways of dealing with potentially uncomfortable adversaries is by simply ignoring them – a strategy that seems to work and make her look even stronger. With a few exceptions, she hasn’t even given her social democratic challenger Peer Steinbrück the dignity of a direct address yet. The worst thing that can happen to Hollande in his attempt to contribute to the future architecture of the eurozone now is to be ignored by the German Chancellor. Berlin should know its responsibilities.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Is there an Alternative for Europe in Germany?

15. March 2013, von Almut Möller, Comments (1)

In my last blog I made the point that despite Germany being a major player in the reform of the eurozone and despite federal elections taking place in the fall of 2013, Germans at the moment seem rather indifferent about the eurozone’s future direction.

I found this to be rather baffling, since the decisions taken by eurozone leaders these days are not mere technical or legal adjustments, but will determine the substance of policies in the currency union and have already done so.

But is it really true that Europe is absent in the minds of German citizens? Perhaps it is a question of weeks now.

The election campaigns haven’t got into full swing yet, as the political parties are still in the process of putting together and adopting their platforms. And it was only this week that a new party with a distinctly anti-euro profile has entered the stage (to which I will come back).

Over these past two weeks, both the leaders of the Green Party (BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN) and the Social Democrats (SPD) have presented their draft platforms to the public. The Greens will put the draft to their party congress in Berlin in late April. In June, every party member gets the chance to cast a vote on the top ten priorities for the Green campaign. As to the Social Democrats, their party congress will convene in mid-April in the southern German city of Augsburg to adopt the 2013 platform. Those seeking for “Europe controversy” in the country notorious for its “Europe consensus” are likely to eventually find some food for commentary at these gatherings.

Leafing through the 100-pages platform of the SPD and searching for “Europe”, there was a particular thing that struck me. EU matters have usually been framed as a grand thought and duty for Germany, more of a political ritual found in intros or conclusions, or in the obligatory chapter at the end in pamphlets of this kind (sometimes together with foreign policy). For voters that made the effort to read through those pamphlets, things must have quite naturally looked as something of a separate matter (“We will work for a better Germany for you, and then there is also the EU which we, good Germans as we are, want to build.”).

Today, European affairs have become much more a matter of policy substance – and with issues such as budget and banking supervision or the tax on financial transactions, quite naturally, intertwined with the domestic context. The new message, accelerated by the past years of crisis, is “We will work for a better Germany for you, and our playing field to achieve this is also Europe”. In other words, we can only preserve our freedom, prosperity and social justice in this world when taking much more responsibility for each other. My guess is that this is a line that still won’t go down naturally with traditional SPD voters.

Needless to say that for the Greens, advocating Europe in such a way is an easier argument to make. The party’s environmental agenda, one of its main pillars since entering the formal political arena in Germany thirty years ago, is by its very nature a field in which the borders of nation-states do not matter all that much.
It is too early to tell though whether the parties challenging Angela Merkel’s return to the chancellery manage to frame their agendas to really make a difference – and to portray European affairs no longer as a matter of statecraft at EU summits, but of political choices, of political drama and of majorities.

Europe For Citizens

“This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”

Blog Authors

Adriaan SchoutAdriaan Schout

Dr Adriaan Schout is Deputy Director Research/Europe at Clingendael, Netherlands Institute of International relations. (read more...)

Alexandre AbreuAlexandre Abreu

Dr Alexandre Abreu is a 33-year-old Portuguese economist with a PhD from the University of London. Currently he is a lecturer in Development Economics at the Institute of Economics and Business Administration, Technical University of Lisbon, and a Researcher at the Centre for African and Development Studies of the same University.

Almut MöllerAlmut Möller

Almut Möller is a political analyst in European integration and European foreign policy. She is currently the head of the Alfred von Oppenheim Centre for European Policy Studies at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin. (read more...)

Supported by